Ok I understand your question but you should use actual figures (and hardly estimates). You look at your past turnover during a rolling 12 month period OR turnover for the 30 days alone if it reaches the VAT threshold.
The turnover is VAT exclusive (not including VAT) in your numbers.
Exempt supplies are excluded from your turnover for VAT registration purposes. But beware if you use the Flat Rate Scheme, because such income is included as ‘business income.’